In the past week, nearby sunflower prices were up 50 cents to $1.00 with new crop unchanged at the crush plants. USDA recently released one of its most important World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports for the year. It gave the market the first look at global production, supply, and demand forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year for several crops. Historically these are the fundamental figures that will largely dictate pricing for 2025 crops over the next year. Global sunflower production in 2025/26 is forecast to increase 8 percent from the previous year to 56.2 million metric tons (MMT). Increased production is estimated for the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, Turkey as well as the European Union. Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest producer, followed by Ukraine and the European Union. Global ending sunflower seed stocks are expected to increase by 6 percent from the previous year. With the additional seed supply, global crush is expected to increase by 9 percent from 2024/25. Global sunflower oil consumption is projected to go up 9 percent, driven by the larger crush. Sunflower oil exports are also expected to increase by 8 percent, from last year. Ending global sunflower oil stocks are forecast to fall slightly from 2024/25 levels. Take these figures with a grain salt as they are the first estimate for the next marketing year. The majority of the sunflower crop is just being planted, and we are a long ways away from it being in the bin. A lot can happen in the months ahead.
2025 new crop sunflower prices at the crush plants are available at cash $22.20-$22.70 and Act of God (AOG) $21.70-$22.50. Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on sunflowers. Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Considering oil premiums that are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%; this pushes a contract with 45% oil content gross return 10% higher per cwt. The $22.70 contract increases to $25.00.
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