Old crop sunflower prices were unchanged with new crop prices unchanged at the crush plants this week. Currently weather conditions are mostly favorable for sunflower development in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Traders are paying more attention to the Black Sea region as an extended period of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation is a growing concern to sunflower production in the region. Weather conditions have stressed sunflower production in Ukraine, southern Russia, and parts of Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Turkey. Oil World recently mentioned that its production estimates for Russia of 19.4 million metric tons (MMT) and Ukraine 14.0 MMT may be too high given current growing conditions. Oil World lowered production prospects in the European Union and Turkey from earlier estimates. The Hamburg, Germany publication notes that there is risk for more significant damage if much needed moisture is not received soon. July is the critical month for sunflowers in this region. Oil World pegged 25/26 global sunflower production at 60.3 MMT, which is higher than USDA’s estimate of 56.3 MMT. The global seed stocks to use ratio is projected to show a slight increase based on current production estimates by the end of the 25/26 marketing year from the previous year. The situation bears watching as Russia and Ukraine are the largest exporters of sunflower oil. The potential reduced availability of sunflower seed and oil production poses risks for global markets and prices will be responsive to potential production shortfalls.

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