On the CBoT, prices pushed higher last week after Russia not only let a Black Sea shipping deal expire, they also actively attacked Ukrainian ports. Old crop sunflower prices increased 5 to 20 cents and new crop sunflower prices increased 40 to 65 cents at the ND crush plants following the gains in other commodities. Recent events have the fate of Black Sea exports more in doubt right now than perhaps they have ever been. Russia’s Defense Ministry says it will consider any shipping vessels in the Black Sea heading to Ukrainian ports as possibly carrying military cargo. As such, Russia is warning that portions of the Black Sea’s international waters are now unsafe for navigation. Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of sunflower seed and oil and typically sends most of its exports through that corridor. The reduced availability to Ukrainian sunflower seed and oil production poses risks for global markets as prices will remain volatile and responsive to potential production shortfalls. Last week USDA issued its initial outlook for 2023 sunflower production and usage for the 2023/24 marketing year. Oil-type sunflower planted acreage is expected to be lower in 2023. Given the lower acreage, oil-type sunflower production was reduced this month by 35 million pounds to 2 billion pounds. In contrast, confection sunflower seed production increased to 266 million pounds this month due to higher planted area. In October, USDA will provide an updated estimate for oil and confection sunflower production.
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