Old crop sunflower prices were up 20 to 60 cents with new crop prices unchanged at the crush plants this week. Traders are beginning to pay more attention to the Black Sea region as an extended period of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation is a growing concern to sunflower production in the region. Oil World recently lowered its production estimates for Russia and Ukraine and notes that there is risk for more significant damage if much needed moisture is not received soon. The situation bears watching as Russia and Ukraine are the largest exporters of sunflower oil. The potential reduced availability of sunflower seed and oil production poses risks for global markets and prices will be responsive to potential production shortfalls. Last week USDA issued its initial outlook for 2024 sunflower production and usage for the 2024/25 marketing year. Oil-type sunflower planted acreage is expected to be lower in 2024. Given the lower acreage, the forecast sunflower seed crush was lowered by 59 million pounds to 855 million pounds on lower 2024 production. The other use category (nonoil use and residual) was lowered to 1.2 billion pounds, the lowest since MY 2019/20. Ending stocks are forecast to decline to 228 million pounds, a 47 percent decrease from MY 2023/24. In October, USDA will provide an updated estimate for oil and confection sunflower production.
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