Get a Jump on 2001 Hybrid Selection
Sunday, October 1, 2000
filed under: Planting Systems
Profitable sunflower production the last few years might be summed
up by the following equation: cash price + LDP - cost of production +
oil premium (and NuSun premium) = profit. That is, sell a certain number
of pounds per acre and lock in a good LDP to cover production costs.
Profit comes from the oil and/or NuSun premiums.
This equation will certainly be at the heart of hybrid selection for the
2001 growing season, says Jerry Miller, research geneticist at the
USDA-ARS Northern Crop Science Lab, Fargo, N.D.
Hybrid performance (yield potential, oil content, maturity, stalk
strength, and pest tolerance or resistance) and production conditions
this year will serve as a guide for seed companies to determine what
hybrids to sell/resell in 2001, and for producers, what hybrids to grow.
Evaluate as much performance information as possible, advises Kathleen
Grady, South Dakota State University oilseed breeder. Yield trial
results from university experiment stations, commercial company trials,
strip tests, and demonstration plots will identify hybrids that are
consistently high yielding, she says. Give more weight to information
from trials or fields close to home, and compare relative performance
over many locations and years. Compare as many trials as possible, since
it is unlikely that environmental conditions of any particular test will
be repeated in any future year.
Aside from agronomic considerations, there will be cases where
availability of seed or an outlet to sell the harvested crop will
dictate selection of hybrid type. Miller points to one N.D. producer
this year whose oil sunflower acreage was half conventional hybrids,
half NuSun. "His local elevator started buying NuSun for the first time.
If that elevator wouldn't have bought the crop or offered a premium, I
don't think that grower would have planted NuSun this year," he says.
Fact is, however, that most country elevators in sunflower-producing
areas are buying NuSun, and have become equipped with refractometers to
test whether sunflower is NuSun or traditional linoleic when harvested
seed is hauled in.
About 50 million pounds of NuSun were produced in 1998, the first year
of commercial production, and supplies are expected to exceed 700-800
million pounds following the 2000 crop year. Industry experts say that
while NuSun accounts for about one-third of oil sunflower acreage this
year, it will be over half and as much as two-thirds of the crop in 2001
(see chart on page 10).
Hybrid Selection Checklist
Courtesy of Miller, Grady, and several of the region's top private
sunflower breeders, here are a few notes to keep in mind as you go
through the checklist in reviewing hybrid performance this year, and in
selecting hybrids for next year.
Yield - Performance averaged over many tests is called "yield
stability." Good yield stability means that a hybrid may or may not be
the best yielder at all locations, but that it does rank high in
yielding potential at many locations. A hybrid that ranks in the upper
20% at all locations exhibits better yield stability than one that is
the top yielder at two locations, but ranks in the lower 40% at two
other locations.
Public and private breeders alike say that many NuSun hybrids are
yielding similarly to most conventional oil hybrids, and will only
improve as NuSun hybrids continue to be developed. In the event your
NuSun hybrid didn't yield as well as your conventional oil hybrid this
year, then shop around for a different NuSun hybrid.
Oil Content/Composition - Select a high-oil hybrid over a low -oil
hybrid with the same yield potential, but don't sacrifice yield in favor
of oil content. The oilseed sunflower market pays a premium based on
market price for over 40% oil (at 10% moisture) and discounts for oil
less than 40%.
Some companies offer guarantees for NuSun oleic levels. As NuSun hybrid
performance data builds each year, be certain to evaluate dependability
or consistency of oleic levels for different NuSun hybrids.
Maturity- Be realistic of your expected planting date, and mindful of
the average killing frost in your area. Full-maturing hybrids generally
yield higher than early hybrids. Maturity is especially important if
planting is delayed. Often, with delayed planting, only an early hybrid
will mature and exhibit its full yield potential. Yield, oil content,
and test weight often are reduced when a hybrid is damaged by frost
before it is fully mature. An earlier hybrid will likely be drier at
harvest than a later hybrid, thus reducing drying costs. Consider
planting hybrids with different maturity dates as a production hedge to
spread risk, drydown and workload.
Moisture Content -Harvesting sunflower at moisture contents as high as
20-25% may reduce bird damage and seed shattering loss during harvest.
Seed must then be dried to 9.5% or less for storage.
Disease Tolerance -The most economical and effective means of sunflower
disease control is the planting of resistant or tolerant hybrids and a
minimum of four years rotation between successive sunflower crops.
Most sunflower hybrids in the United States have resistance to
Verticillium wilt, races 1 and 2 of downy mildew, and to two or more
races of rust. Consult the seed company for information on the reaction
of a particular hybrid to these and other diseases that may pose a risk
in your growing area.
Self-pollination (or self-compatibility), recommended to be at least
90%, is another trait to keep in mind. It refers to the ability of the
plant to pollinate itself despite unfavorable conditions for
pollination.
Making Sense of the Statistics
"Expected mean" in plot trial information simply refers to the average
performance number for a particular trait of all hybrids evaluated in
the trial.
To determine if one hybrid is better than another for a given trait, use
the least significant difference value at the bottom of each data table,
often listed as LSD .05 or LSD 5%. This is a statistical way to
indicate if a trait like yield differs when comparing two hybrids. If
two hybrids differ by more than the indicated LSD 5% value for a given
trait, they would most likely differ again when grown under similar
conditions. If two hybrids differ by less than the LSD for a particular
trait, than there's no statistical difference.
For example, let's say a performance trial table indicates one hybrid
yielded 2,600 lbs/acre, compared to another hybrid in the same plot that
yielded 2,310 lbs/acre. If the LSD for this particular plot trial data
is 407 lbs/acre, there is no statistical difference in yield between the
two varieties. If the oil content percentage for one hybrid is 44
compared to 41 for another, and the LSD is 2.3, the first hybrid can be
expected to have a higher oil content than the second hybrid, under
similar growing conditions.
The coefficient of variability (C.V. %) listed at the bottom of each
data table is a relative measure of the amount of variation or
consistency recorded for a particular trait, expressed as a percentage
of the mean. Generally, trials with low C.V. rates are more reliable for
making hybrid choices than trials with higher C.V. rates. Trials with
C.V. rates below 15-20% are generally considered to be reliable for
comparing yield. - Tracy Sayler
- Calculating Sunflower Gross Revenue -
Use this worksheet to estimate and compare gross
revenue expected from conventional oil sunflower
and/or NuSun hybrids on the market for 2001.
Estimated Gross Revenue - Traditional Sunflower
Cash Return (CR) = Yield (lbs./acre) x cash price
Yield (lbs./acre) _____ x Cash price $______ = $ ______ CR
Oil Premium (OP) = Oil % over 40 (base) x 2% x CR
Oil %_____ - 40 = _____ x 2 % x CR______ = $ _____ OP
Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) = Yield (lbs./acre) x LDP
Yield (lbs./acre) _______ x LDP = $ _______LDP
Total Gross Revenue = $ _______
Estimated Gross Revenue - NuSun Sunflower
Cash Return (CR) = Yield (lbs./acre) x NuSun cash price
Yield (lbs./acre) _____ x NuSun cash price $_____ = $ _____ CR
Oil Premium (OP) = Oil % over 40 (base) x 2 % x CR
Oil %_____ - 40 = _____ x 2 % x CR_____ = $_____ OP
LDP = Yield (lbs./acre) x LDP
Yield (lbs./acre) _______ x LDP = $ _______ LDP
Total Gross Revenue = $ _______
CALCULATION EXAMPLES*
* Using LDP and cash price at Enderlin, N.D., as of 10/15/00.
Estimated Gross Revenue - Traditional Sunflower
Cash Return (CR) = Yield (lbs./acre) x cash price (¢/lb.)
Yield (lbs./acre) 2,000 x Cash price $ .0555 = $ 111.00 CR
Oil Premium (OP) = Oil % over 40 (base) x 2% x CR
Oil % 45 - 40 = 5 x 2% x CR $ 111.00 = $ 11.10 OP
Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) = Yield (lbs./acre) x LDP
Yield (lbs./acre) 2,000 x LDP $ 4.25 = $ 85.00 LDP
Total Gross Revenue = $ 207.10
Estimated Gross Revenue - NuSun Sunflower
Cash Return (CR) = Yield (lbs./acre) x NuSun cash price (¢/lb.)
Yield (lbs./acre) 2,000 x NuSun cash price $ .0615 = $ 123.00 CR
Oil Premium (OP) = Oil % over 40 (base) x 2 % x CR
Oil % 45 - 40 = 5 x 2 % x CR $ 123.00 = $ 12.30 OP
LDP = Yield (lbs./acre) x LDP
Yield (lbs./acre) 2,000 x LDP $ 4.25 = $85.00 LDP
Total Gross Revenue = $ 220.30