In the past week nearby prices at the ND crush plants were up 25 to 30 cents with new crop prices unchanged. USDA released the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report last week. Traders anticipated that any significant changes to production, stocks and usage would come in the January report. USDA did not disappoint and made no changes to the 2025/2026 U.S. soybean supply and use projections. USDA is forecasting global sunflower seed production for 2025/26 at 51.77 million metric tons (MMT) down one percent from 2024/25. Lower production in Ukraine is the leading factor for the decrease. Ukrainian sunflower production estimates remain murky due to the ongoing war, but production is anticipated to be around nineteen percent lower than 2024. The European Union and Turkey are expected to have lower than average production as well. Ending global sunflower seed stocks are expected to be 2.8 MMT, which is four percent lower than last year and thirteen percent lower than two years ago. The 2025/26 global sunflower crush is estimated to reach 47.4 MMT which is about equal to last marketing year. Global sunflower oil production is also expected to be about equal to last market year at 20 MMT. Total world sunflower oil exports are anticipated to decrease by four percent in the 2025/26 marketing year. Global sunflower oil stocks are projected to decline by a whopping fifteen percent to 2.28 MMT by the end of September 2026. This is the lowest level in many years.
ADM Enderlin, Cargill West Fargo and Colorado Mills crush plants are offering 2026 new crop cash and Act of God (AOG) High Oleic contracts. ADM is at $22.80 cash and $22.30 AOG. Cargill is at $22.70 cash and $22.20 AOG. Colorado Mills is at $23.00 AOG. Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on sunflowers. Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Considering oil premiums that are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%; this pushes a contract with 45% oil content gross return 10% higher per cwt. The AOG $22.20-$22.30 contract increases to a range of $24.45-$24.55, and the cash $22.70-$23.00 contract moves up to $25.00-$25.30.
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